Why Rubrik Stock Can Still Climb 20% in 2025

Rubrik (NYSE: RBRK) has emerged as one of 2025’s top-performing tech IPOs, surging from its $32 debut to over $91—a 185% gain. But recent financials suggest the stock’s run isn’t over. In Q4 FY2025, Rubrik reported $258.1 million in revenue, up 47% year-over-year, and subscription revenue jumped 54%. With a narrowing adjusted loss of just $0.18 per share and ARR reaching $826.7 million, Rubrik is showing strong operational momentum.

Looking ahead, the company’s FY2026 guidance projects revenue of $1.145 to $1.161 billion—implying 35% growth—and a positive subscription ARR contribution margin of 2%, a major milestone toward profitability. Analyst sentiment remains bullish, with recent price target hikes from JPMorgan, Piper Sandler, and Guggenheim, many of which still lag behind Rubrik’s current trajectory. Strategic partnerships with Pure Storage and Okta further deepen its competitive moat in the data security market.

Despite the sharp post-IPO rally, the fundamentals and forward outlook justify further upside. A 20% move from today’s price would put RBRK near $110—a level that’s realistic given its accelerating growth, improving margins, and positioning in a red-hot cybersecurity market. With rising enterprise demand for zero-trust architecture and ransomware protection, Rubrik could still be in the early stages of a long-term growth story.